Really Bad Ideas - Everything I shouldna thought, but did, and posted

September 23, 2009

Will urgency make your start-up a success?

The most common, and seemingly most sage advice from successful entrepreneurs is to "just do it". Launch into your venture with unrestrained urgency and commitment, without it your enterprise is doomed! That seems right, and yet there is another side to the coin we should all say out loud.

Most startups will fail.

If you're trying to build a tech company it's a particulary dicey proposition, and you owe it to your family, friends, and any employees to read this book: High Tech StartUp. It's a sobering book full of facts, figures, and reality that anyone hoping to succeed as a startup needs to deal with eyes wide open.

The point is not that a passionate person with an idea and a dream should not pursue it with full commitment; indeed how else to succeed? How else to change, to better the world?! However, there are other factors every entrepreneur would benefit from looking at coldly & rationally.

Imagine you decide to be a surfer and catch a wave. So I give you, and thousands of others like you, a boat ride out to the middle of the ocean, no land in sight. Everyone starts paddling in various directions with great enthusiasm, hoping a wave will rise up behind them and give them a glorious ride to shore.

"Wait," you say, "which way is best to paddle? Where is shore and which direction will the waves come from?"

"Is a wave coming soon? Or will my arms be tired and as limp as spaghetti noodles when a wave finally arrives?"

"When a wave comes, will I be close enough to shore for it to break and carry me?"

"Will the wave be strong enough to carry me?"

"Will the wave be ridable, or will it break all at once?"

"Will it throw me on the rocks, only for others to see and learn from my mistakes and ride successfully?"

All I can say is that these seem like good questions.

Riding waves, whether in innovation or in the ocean, is hard. This endeavor takes great fortitude, persistence, self-belief, and endurance, but it only works if you are in the right place at the right time.

Luck favors the bold and confident, but rarely the foolish. You have a much better chance at success if you know where you are and learn to read the waters around you.

Then, when you have made your mark, you will have your chance to tell all the hopeful paddlers in the middle of the ocean that it is about a sense of urgency.

As your professor would say, urgency is a necessary but not sufficient condition. Do your homework.

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Filed under // business entreprenuership Innovation startups

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August 24, 2009

August 24th is Duke Kahanamoku Day

Duke who? Yeah, I think we went to a Dukes restaurant on vacation once, right?

Duke Kahanamoku, an exceptional man and person, is inspiring to remember. Duke went confidently against the grain of the larger world in the positive manner he believed in, and he made the world a richer place in doing so. He did what he loved, and shared what he loved with the world.

Duke Kahanamoku was born August 24, 1890, a full blooded Hawaiian, but he was a common Hawaiian by birth. So why will you find statues of him at various places around the world? It was the things Duke did and the way he interacted with people that made his name ring true, for he carried an inherent air of nobility. Duke was royalty of his own making, by his character and action.

Duke's creed

Try meeting or leaving people with aloha, you’ll be surprised by their reaction. I believe it and it is my creed. Aloha to you.

-- Duke Paoa Kahanamoku

Growing up around the beaches of Waikiki, Duke spent countless hours in the ocean surfing, swimming and paddling canoe, the things he loved, and he was probably as comfortable in and under the ocean as most people are at a grassy park.

It was swimming that brought Duke to world attention, and Duke that brought the spirit of aloha and surfing to the attention of the world.

One day when Duke was stroking through one of his daily swims in the ocean off Diamond Head, at age 20, an observer clocked his 100 yard time and realized he was swimming at world class pace. The observer convinced Duke and his friends to form a club and enter Hawaii's first sanctioned swim meet, to be held in Honolulu Harbor. Swimming across the harbor in his first official race, Duke broke the world record for the 100 yard freestyle by more than 4 seconds.

The swimming world refused to believe the phenomenal times reported for this unknown swimmer, suggesting the harbor venue must have given him some advantage. Duke proved them wrong the following year at the Stockholm Olympics where he won the gold medal in the 100 meter freestyle and set a new world record. Duke had developed his swimming style out in the ocean, outside the competitive swimming world, learning casually from any visiting competitive swimmers he met at Waikiki.

Competitive swimming provided a avenue for Duke to connect the world outside Hawai'i with Hawai'i, and Duke became an unofficial ambassador for Hawai'i, surfing, and aloha for decades. Duke traveled to the East and West coasts of the continental US, and to Australia, giving public demonstrations of surfing, and lighting the fuse for the explosion of the sport and lifestyle beyond Hawai'i.

For the millions beyond Hawai'i who surf, it's likely because Duke led the way.

A few things about Duke

Participated in the Olympics from age 22 through 42, winning 3 gold medals, 2 silver, and a bronze over 20 years
Rode a monster wave at Waikiki for over a mile on a 16' finless board, a legendary ride never equaled
An incomparable ocean waterman, he rescued drowning men, fought a 10' eel, and filled his life with many more heroics now lost in time
Introduced the world to surfing, swimming, and Aloha

Learn more about Duke

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Filed under // Great People

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August 21, 2009

Overlooking Analog would be a Bad Idea

Now I'm going analog, even when I'm doing digital. Analog is friendly, like the iVinyl app.

You see, I had it all wrong.

I thought the world was analog and digital was an imperfect representation of it. Digital, I thought, was a human friendly approximation of reality. I made a simple mistake.

I had it all backwards. Probably.

The Universe is Binary

Everything, it seems, at it's fantastically lowest level is probably binary. Everything has to choose a state, e.g. quantum particles have to "choose" a spin (right or left). You have to decide to read on, or not. (Hint: read on)

The binary nature of everything seems obvious from the excellent little book: Decoding the Universe

If we could dig deep enough, everything is in a binary state, 1 or 0.

Humans are not Equipped for Binary Reality

Everything being binary is not very helpful to you and I.

MP3's and the Internet are great, but do you really think you can make love while considering the binary state of each subatomic particle around you? We need analog, pictures; graphs instead of infinite data points.

I bought a new watch this week after a decade refusing to wear a watch in stubborn resistance to the tyranny of time. I decided not having a close enough grasp on time was holding me back from things I wanted to do.

My new watch is a digital device, very accurate, but it has the old school analog minute and hour sweep hands, which is very friendly.

While I can easily read big digits on a digital display, those digits only provide a single data point, 10:55 AM. When I look at the analog hands on my new watch I instantly get a graphical depiction that tells me:

the minute hand has moved a 1/3 pie slice since I last looked
the minute hand has progressed much faster than my task
I need a new plan

It's all instantly obvious without having to go through a quick mental calculation on how many minutes I have left and how much I can get done in them. The hands show me; they give me a picture, a graph of the passage of time. Very human friendly.

And whatever the nature of reality, I am human, after all.

Check out these nuggets:

More to read on the nature of reality, including whether it is binary:

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Filed under // Information Nature of reality Visual Thinking

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July 30, 2009

More than a Poker Face

Cialdini's Six Universal Principles of Influence

One of the few people I listen to about the dynamics of deal making and negotiation is Robert Cialdini. Cialdini is a professor of Psychology and Marketing at Arizona State University.

One thing that makes Cialdini's work stand out is that it is not just based on anecdotal experience, but instead on detailed studies of behavior. Some of what he reports is counter-intuitive, which is the most valuable find of all.

Here are 6 keys to influence in Cialdini's own words as reported by SmartPlanet (emphasis is mine):

• Reciprocation. People give back to you the kind of treatment that they’ve received from you. If you do something first by giving something of value—be it more information or a positive attitude—it will all come back to you.

• Scarcity. People will try to seize those opportunities that you offer them that are rare or dwindling in availability. This is an important reminder that we need to differentiate what we have to offer that is different from our rivals and competitors. That way, we can tell people honestly “You can only get this aspect or this feature by moving in our direction.”

• Authority. People will be most persuaded by you when they see you as having knowledge and credibility on the topic. You’d be surprised how many fail to properly inform their audience of their genuine credentials before launching into an influence attempt. That’s a big mistake.

• Commitment. People will feel a need to comply with your request if they see that it’s consistent with what they’ve publicly committed themselves to in your presence. The implication there is to ask people to state their true priorities, commitments and features of the situation that they think are most important. Then align your requests or proposals with those things. The rule for consistency will cause them to want to say yes to what they’ve already told you they value.

• Liking. People prefer to say yes to your request to the degree that they know and like you. No surprise there but a simple way to make that happen is to uncover genuine similarities or parallels that exist between you and the person you want to influence. That person is going to like you more and be more willing to move in your direction.

• Consensus. People will be likely to say yes to your request if you give them evidence that people just like them have been saying yes to it too. I saw recent study that showed if a restaurant owner puts on the menu “This is our most popular item” than it immediately becomes more popular.

I suspect readers in Sales or in a negotiation discipline have observed and practice at least one or more of these. I am highlighting them here because I think it's quite useful to see these six factors laid out in one place. Like a plan. :)

Comments? Have these worked for you?

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Filed under // business Deal negotiation influence sales

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July 22, 2009

Top 10 Reasons Not to Surf (in the Ocean)

Whether you have been tempted to take up surfing, or already have been surfing and have not been able to quit yet, here are 10 reasons to strengthen your resolve to stay out of the ocean:

Surfers Knots are real, ugly and very painful
Surfers on average earn much less money than their non-surfing peers
Surfing in the sun gives you wrinkles and ages you prematurely
Fewer girls/guys will date a surfer than will date a non-surfer
Surfers Ear requires someone drill into your ear to restore your hearing
Surfboards increase your carbon footprint. Very uncool.
Surfing annoys the Great White Sharks of Jaws fame
Where do you think sewer water drains?
Giant Killer Squid have moved into the coastal waters of California
I'm already in the lineup

If you do go in the water, vaya con dios my friend. We (your girlfriend & I) will remember you well.

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March 12, 2009

Is it time in the USA to reset our expectation$ ?

Something to think about:

US People	305,802,964

	Total	Per Person
US Income	14.58 Trillion	$ 47,678
US Gov Debt	(10.97) Trillion	(35,856)
US Consumer Debt	(2.56) Trillion	(8,384)

		$ 3,437

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Filed under // business consumers economics

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February 13, 2009

David Beckham & deal making with AC Milan

Over the next hour an amazing deal could be struck between the MLS and AC Milan. If egos get in the way that would qualify as a bad idea.

The David Beckham transfer saga provides a great opportunity to think about deal negotiation, for at first glance there is no reasonable way to conclude a deal. I would argue, however, that this is an incredible opportunity for both sides. The MLS has set a deadline of 3 PM New York time for making a deal.

Why Make a Deal?

MLS and the LA Galaxy do not want to let Beckham go, and it is not just about the money they've paid for him, as bringing Beckham to the MLS ostensibly raised the worldwide stature of the whole league. AC MIlan, on the other hand, are in third place in their race for the scudetto (Italy's Serie A league championship) and urgently need an edge. Beckham's long passes, crosses and freekicks do not make him the most valuable player on their team by any stretch of the imagination, but Beckham might provide that little edge that makes the difference and helps them win games and perhaps the championship. They need that edge right now.

I would assess the two parties as follows:

MLS

Expects the deal should be financially positive for them as measured by the greater of what they paid for Beckham and what revenues he would generate for them in MLS
Wants to maintain or increase the marquee value of MLS league players
Wants vindication that the Beckham experiment was successful

AC Milan

Needs a team roster that will win them games over the remaining season of Serie A
Can pay a sizable fee, but needs it to be a financially sound decision and taking into consideration Beckham is not a good long term investment
Players egos and morale are in the mix. The transfer fee cannot be out of line compared to the AC Milan stars which include some of the best and most famous players in the world.
Like any major soccer team, AC Milan has very good players who for some reason are not playing at top form this season. In the long run they are still major assets, but they are not contributing materially to the current season goals, which are critical.

Deal Noises

We've heard rumors of demands for a very large transfer fee, anywhere from $10 - $100M, as well as a demand for a "star"player in exchange, such as Ronaldinho. Ronaldinho is not currently playing as many minutes for AC MIlan as David Beckham is, but Ronaldinho is still a much greater star both at the box office and on the pitch than David Beckham; it would be an outrageous request to ask for Ronaldinho in exchange! It does raise some interesting deal prospects though.

Potential Levers in a Deal Structure

Here are some potential considerations that might prove constructive in structuring a deal for David Beckham's transfer to AC Milan:

League calendar variance. Since the MLS and Serie A have league calendars which overlap less than 100%, there is time where the player in one league is idle while the other league plays. This is what gave rise to the loan. In a few months when Serie A ends, MLS will be in full swing.
Timing and length of services. Time wise the value to AC Milan of David Beckham's services is greatest now through the end of the current Serie A season, which ends midway through the MLS season yet to start. As Beckham is fairly senior for a soccer player, his value diminishes quickly over the seasons ahead at the level of play required in the world's most demanding soccer leagues like Serie A. On the other hand David Beckham's play and box office draw in the MLS can likely continue for many years to come. David Beckham's greatest value now is at AC Milan, his greatest value in years to come is potentially in the MLS.
Beckham's future marquee value. If David Beckham joins AC Milan and they win Serie A, Beckham would be even more valuable to the MLS, as his star power would have increased.
David Beckham's resale value for top league soccer the years ahead is relatively low.
AC Milan's roster contains players of great quality who are not currently making a critical contribution to AC Milan's season success. These are players who are not currently very important to Milan, but whose play could raise the level of an MLS team quite significantly. Generally the MLS cannot afford players of such quality.
AC Milan has players of incredible world wide star status such as Kaka, Ronaldinho and others. These players are much bigger stars than Beckham in the soccer world. Bringing them to benefit the MLS in some manner could be of great value, even if it was only a loan or more creative arrangement.
AC Milan is a team of enormous prestige whose association with MLS or a MLS team could be of enormous value.

Deal Specifics

I think a deal could be quite a win-win for both the MLS and AC Milan if they are both thinking about this creatively and without too much ego. Here are some potential arrangements I'd expect to see some or all of in a deal:

Beckham is loaned or sold to AC Milan for a fee of $5-$20M
AC Milan forms an official partnership either the LA Galaxy or MLS
AC Milan provides quality players back to the MLS on loan or transfer for the current season
AC Milan considers loaning a marquee player to the LA Galaxy
AC Milan does a Summer tour of the US playing perhaps 10 of the MLS teams in games which their biggest name players will participate in.
MLS has a buy-back right to David Beckham at the end of some period of time

What do you think, is there a good deal to be struck for both sides? How would it be structured?

The artificial deal deadline is up in less than one hour

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Filed under // David Beckham Deal negotiation Soccer

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January 21, 2009

Really Bad Idea: Stop IT Purchases, Try to Make Do

If a company is going bankrupt, they will have no choice but to stop buying technology items; but for other enterprises who are still an ongoing concern, IT is as strategic as ever. Trying to make do can be penny wise but pound foolish.

These slides outline eight reasons why an IT department needs to keep their technology fresh and their systems in tip top shape during tougher economic times. Good luck!

Eight Reasons Buying It Now Is Critical

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Filed under // IT Productivity Recession Selling

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January 13, 2009

Do You Want to Touch Your Computer Inappropriately? Throwing The Gauntlet: Bring Visual Thinking to Computing

The Gauntlet: Bring Visual Thinking to Computing

GigaOM posted commentary on the limitations of touch screen interfaces, but it really begs a bigger question. Why is computer interface the way it is today, and is it the best interface for humans?

We actually do almost all computer interface with touch, but not with touch screens. Mostly we touch a keyboard and a mouse, watching the screen to verify our input. Short of voice commands or brainwave interface, touch is all we've got and it is the state of the art. Navigation and commands are usually with a mouse movement ("graphical interface") and input is with words, numbers and other symbols entered via a keyboard. You and I assume this is the only way, natural even.

Humans are Not Made of Words

That's how we've been conditioned by computer use, but it is a skewed perspective. Here's an exercise for you. Take a deep breath. Relax

Take a moment and remember your last dream

Now remember a piece of art that connected with you

Think about a warm feeling you had about another person

Finally imagine how clouds work

What letters, number and symbols were in your mind as you visualized those things? Were there any, or did you see images?

There is a place for language, but it must not be allowed to limit how we think, and if you're on a computer, it does. You see with all this great technology we're still back in the 70's, we're using a language interface, stuck in a strictly verbal paradigm. Language is like a good lawyer - steel trap logic in the right hands, but it takes you down a certain path and does not encourage looking around, the way a picture will, to consider life and truth, or just other possibilities. Humans are capable of more than language.

Computers are based on Words and Symbols

Computer interface currently drives us to define everything in verbal terms, even though our brains are capable of much more. Go ahead sketch a picture on your laptop and tell me how it responds. Where is the technology to process pictures as logic, as commands, as knowledge; where is the technology to understand the dream or idea or art we might draw?

GUI itself is a misnomer. Your computer does not understand your graphics, only its own.

A (good) picture is worth a thousand words it's said, but we type merrily along, accepting the tyranny of language, ignoring universes of possibility all around us. Language itself started with humans drawing pictures on walls. Now we risk losing the power of visual thinking all together simply because we've built computers around words, and computers are dominating our lives.

The Challenge

Where to start? We need a capable interface for graphical input as standard equipment, first. You can try to draw me a picture with today's mouse (or keyboard!) but it pales in comparison to pencil and paper, so generally we don't bother. Drawing directly on a surface seems to be the requirement, and the whiteboard is the paradigm. If the screen were your paper and an electronic pen your pencil, you could show me a more interesting and open world, you could communicate more freely.

Once we've facilitated people drawing freely on their computers, free form human graphical input will become a data source the great minds of this Internet generation will strive to have our systems understand; your sketches will be the raw material, visual data, with which to design computers which understand the visual. It's likely a software thing.

Computing has not come as far as it might have, and I challenge today's great minds to take the leap forward to the next level, visual computing. Language is necessary, and it is all a lawyer needs; but language is insufficient for mathematicians, scientists, lovers and others. We need computers that can keep up with our visual thinking.

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Filed under // Future Innovation Visual Thinking

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January 12, 2009

Zen New Years Resolutions for Everyone presentation

You know you are a little behind when you realize you never made any new years resolutions. Not to worry. Here are a few resolutions that should work for everyone, and you can adopt them now without shame. These are things one strives for, it's a best effort thing. Like real life. cheers

ZEN New Years Resolutions for Everyone

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